Randomness - Part 2

In this article, we continue on from where we left....

We concluded in part 1 by saying that since atmospheric events are truly random, RNG's which use them would indeed produce random numbers.

Or does it???

Read on...

Let us again start with the most simplest of the physical events - tossing of a coin.

We can only be sure that the probability of both a head and tail is equal and is half. We can not even tell the number of heads or tails we would get by tossing a coin 100 times(though we could say with certain confidence level say 90% that there would be 40 to 60 heads approximately, as your confidence level increases the range also increases. So for saying with 100% confidence, we would have to include the complete range - 0 to 100) leave alone the exact sequence of heads and tails.

Now let us move further. What if i say the mass of the coin is 1 gram? Does it make any difference to what we have talked till now?

Answer: YES it does.

This is a very important parameter which everyone tossing a coin never think of. Applying the laws of physics, given the initial state(lets assume head side of the coin), mass of the coin, can we not exert the right amount of force required so that the coin comes back to the same initial state?

Yes we can!!! Hurrah..Simply put, if the person tossing the coin exerted just the same amount of force each time he tossed the coin, he would end up with the same result. Wow..We have just proved what was so random and unpredictable till now - "tossing a coin" is NO MORE RANDOM!!

Now moving on to more complex phenomenon like rain, wind, temperature, thunder et cetera. We just said in part 1 that though we have thousands of terabytes of data on these naturally occuring, we are unable to predict them 100% accurately. So how does one prove that these events are NOT RANDOM?

Simple.."The Butterfly Effect".

It states that - Small variations of the initial condition of a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect - read through for detailed understanding of "butterfly effect")

This phrase means that a butterfly's flapping of its wings might create tiny atmospheric disturbances that may ultimately alter the path, delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of tornado in a certain place. More specifically, flapping of the wings is the "intial condition" which may cause a long-term effect - "the tornado". So if the butterfly had not flapped its wings, the entire course of events might have been altered or different.

These effects are what the weather forecast departments are still trying to determine. They know that pressure difference causes winds but a "butterfly's flap" somewhere could alter their prediction.If we could identify these "tiny effects" causing rain,wind et cetera, we would be able to predict these phenomenons with 100% accuracy.

Hence even these natural phenomenon are dependent on some factors - determination of which would imply they are NOT RANDOM.

Before i conclude, i would like to take this yet another step further. It is the formation of a GOD-equation(on lines of GOD-particle) which will eliminate randomness.

F = Σ(Fp) where p = 1,2,3…n

Each Fp = f(ci) where i = 1,2,3…m

C1,C2,C3…..Cm denotes various conditions on which Fp is dependent on.

F1,F2,F3……Fn denotes all possible events

Events include activities ranging from talking, swimming, smoking, praying, studying, playing et cetera to phenomena like drought, flooding, earth-quakes, rain, economic reforms, government policies, war et cetera.

Basically everything that can happen in this universe is categorized into a distinct, non-overlapping Fn.

It is in a very crude format/language which must be revised thoroughly. But the idea behind presenting this equation was to understand that any outcome or value of F was determined by a summation of events and each of these events occured due to specific conditions on which they where dependent.

Consider this example to help understand the "GOD-equation" better. Lifespan of a person X.

It is governed by activities like smoking, exercising, balanced diet etc and events like drought, flood, earth-quakes etc. Each of this event is dependent on specific conditions. For example - smoking. It is dependent on factors like parental control, self-control, availability of cigarettes, government policies, price of cigarettes to include a few.

Similarly droughts, which is dependent on factors like rainfall, green-life, terrain etc. If these factors are known, then we could say with 100% confidence that the event(smoking, drought) would happen or not. If we sum the effect of all these events, we can determine the lifespan of a person.

One topic remains unaddressed however.. Predictions of genuine soothsayer's, astrologers, great indian sages and likewise. How do they predict events well in advance? How do they provide alternate course of actions to avert disasters or problems? Simple : They use the "GOD-equation". Or simply put they know all the factors which affect an event and hence predict with certainty the outcomes. Similarly, the alternate course of actions which they provide are those tiny "butterflies" which could change the future course of actions.

Hence to conclude i would like to say - the universe is pseudo-random and not truly random.

End Notes:

1. I didn't know about the Chaos Theory when i had the concept of "Everthing is the universe is only pseudo-random in my mind".

2. I read about it when started explaining in details about the butterfly effect. To present the exact statement of the butterfly effect, i used wikipedia. That was when i read in brief about Chaos Theory. Till that moment i had only heard about the term but didn't know what it meant exactly.

3. So one can treat this as an extension to Chaos Theory(if it is not too much what i am saying!!)

4. In case you like to take this idea forward, please mention the source or give a reference to this blog atleast. Plagiarism strictly prohibited.

Vartmankal

(TT - 01:52)